Futurewire Newsletter

 

Over a Year Later, Have We Done Anything to Prevent the Next Oso?

by Tim Trohimovich, Director of Planning & Law, Futurewise

On the morning of March 22, 2014, the deadliest landslide in the history of the United States occurred – right here in Washington State.  The Oso numbers are heart-rending. Forty-three people died and 49 homes were destroyed. Other residents were injured and had to be rescued by heroic first responders who put their lives at risk to rescue survivors from the mud and the tops of buildings. The landslide blocked State Route 530, depressing the area economy. Homeowner insurance policies do not cover landslide damage, so Oso property owners were stuck with mortgages to repay and no insurance money to pay them off. All of these losses continue to haunt the North Fork of the Stillaguamish River valley.

And unless you were directly affected by it, it’s pretty easy to forget, or at least not think about it.  Surprisingly, local and state government has responded much in the same way.  Little progress to prevent another Oso has been made in the over year and half since the tragedy. Few counties have updated their regulations to protect people and property from landsides. The one county that has updated its landslide regulations, Snohomish County --the County where Oso occurred – went in the opposite direction of what would be expected by reducing landslide protections that could prevent another Oso. 

The Risk of Another Oso

Landslides have always been known to be a significant geologic threat in Washington long before Oso. Our state's active earthquake faults, abundant hills, and damp climate have caused numerous landslides.  Landslide risk is a complex function of underlying topographic and geological conditions, combined with triggering conditions such as heavy precipitation, logging, development, and/or seismic activity. None of which Western Washington has plenty of.  Coastal bluffs along the Puget Sound and out on the Washington coast regularly sluff off. Our railroad routes along the slopes of the Puget Sound from Vancouver to Bellingham are regularly cut off by mud slides. Since 1980, landslide or mudslide have been listed in 12 out of the 33 federally declared disasters in our state, often as a secondary event triggered by severe winter storm or flooding.

Unfortunately, the impacts of climate change is likely to make the risk of landslides more common.  According to the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, the Pacific Northwest is predicted to get warmer and wetter according to climate change models, which results in increased landslides in the region.  The average annual precipitation in Washington has increased by about one-third of an inch each decade since the beginning of the 20th century. Temperature averages have also increased about 1.5°F since 1920, with climate models projecting increases in annual temperature of, on average, 2.0°F by the 2020s, 3.2 °F by the 2040s, and 5.3°F by the 2080s.   As we see less snowpack, earlier snowmelt, and more winter rainfall, we are likely to see more landslides in a region that is already landslide-prone.

Counties and Cities Slow To Act

Regulation of development and activities in and around landslide hazard areas falls to cities and counties under the 1990 Washington State Growth Management Act (GMA).  The Act attempts to reduce sprawl and protect agricultural and natural resources by requiring cities and counties to create comprehensive plans and support their implementation through infrastructure investment and regulation. Integral to comprehensive planning is the required identification of "critical areas" unsuitable for residential, commercial or industrial development. Critical area include geological hazards, wetlands, flood hazards, fish and wildlife habitats, and aquifers used as sources of drinking water.   Geologically hazardous areas include landslides and erosion areas where development may lead to public safety concerns.  Cities and counties are required under the GMA to use the best available science in identifying geologically hazardous areas prone to land and mudslides and protecting such land from development.   

With over a year and a half after Oso, few cities and counties have updated their landslide hazard area regulations.  One reason for this inaction is that the GMA only requires counties and cities to update these regulations every eight to ten years, depending on their population size and rate of growth. The GMA first update deadline after the Oso tragedy was June 30, 2015 and local governments can take an extra year to update their landslide hazard regulations along with their other critical areas regulations. So some jurisdictions will not have to update their landslide hazard regulations until June 30, 2016. By that time their residents and property owners will have been exposed to landslide hazards for more than 2 years since the Oso tragedy. In the case of landslide hazard areas, the GMA should be amended to require faster action by counties and cities when the lives of their residents and their homes are at risk.

The only county to update its landslide hazard regulations since the Oso tragedy, Snohomish County, did not adopt regulations sufficient to prevent another Oso tragedy. None of the recently built homes at Oso had conditions which would protect them from the existing landslide rules. This is because Snohomish County only requires consideration of landslide hazards within 200 feet of the property.   But the Oso landslide ran out 5,500 feet from the base, or toe, of the slope. Snohomish County retained this inadequate regulation in its update. Further, in determining the distance a landslide will run out, the county caps the run out distance at twice the height of the slope. The Oso slope was 600 feet high, but the landslide ran out 5,500 feet, over nine times the height of the slope. 

Peer-reviewed scientific studies have shown there is no causal relationship between slope height and the distance a landslide runs out. But Snohomish County stuck to this artificial limit. Snohomish County did include a provision allowing, but not requiring, staff to mandate better protections against landslides. However, this provision does not include any triggers for when better protections are required and nothing in that provision requires consideration of landslide hazards more than 200 feet from the lot on which a house is proposed.

Futurewise spent over a year working with Snohomish County in the hope they would adopt landslide hazard regulations that would protect their residents and property owners from another Oso.  Despite providing the County with peer-reviewed scientific papers, drafting specific language the county could adopt, and meeting with staff and elected officials, Snohomish County adopted inadequate regulations. The updated regulations keep many of the same provisions that allowed developers to build the houses that were destroyed by the Oso landslide. Oso was not the only landslide in Snohomish County in 2014, another landslide wiped out a bridge providing the only access to a rural neighborhood. The county’s new regulations do not address this problem either.

On a practical level, we could wait years for the necessary fixes in our landslide hazard regulations, city by city, county by county.  We could wait until another tragedy strikes.  Remember Oso wasn’t the first – it was just the most deadly in our state’s and nation’s history.   The risks in our mind are not worth it.  Futurewise has taken steps to challenge Snohomish County’s ineffective regulations that continue to put its residents at risk.  This month we appealed the County’s new regulations to the Growth Management Hearings Board, a state agency that reviews appeals that comprehensive plans and development regulations do not comply with the GMA. Given the record that Futurewise amassed and provided to Snohomish County, we are confident that the Board will find the County’s update of its landslide regulations to violate the GMA. Futurewise is asking the Board to require the County to make meaningful improvements that will protect people and property from landslides.

A Small Step Forward

Washington State's Department of Natural Resources is tasked with mapping geologically hazardous zones, including areas susceptible to land and mudslides. The locations of these geologically hazardous areas are provided to cities and counties in the development and implementation of their geologically hazard area regulations under the GMA.  

While it can often be rare for progress in our State Capitol, this year, the Legislature and Governor passed Senate Bill 5088. This bill requires the Washington State Department of Natural Resources to expand its use of LiDAR to map landslides. LiDAR stands for Light Detection and Ranging. LiDAR uses pulsed laser beams to measure the distance from an airplane to vegetation and the surface of the earth. The light pulses together with other data recorded by the plane can generate precise, three-dimensional maps showing the shape of the Earth and its surface characteristics. These maps allow trained geologists to identify earlier landsides concealed by erosion and vegetation and to use this information to identify likely future landslides and, along with other techniques, how far the landslide may runout. Senate Bill 5088 requires the Department of Natural Resources to make this information available to counties, cities, and the public.

Of course a bill requiring the Department of Natural Resources to do more work will not be successful without more funding. As part of its budget request, the Department of Natural Resources asked for $6.6 million and 14 new employees to inventory and map areas susceptible to landslides and the potential for damage presented by these hazards. The legislature appropriated $4.6 million and authorized seven new employees to undertake this work in the 2015-2017 biannual budget. While not ideal, the $4.6 million is a start.

In early 2015, we will be releasing our Landslide Hazard Report, which provides guidance to cities and counties as they update their landslide hazard area regulations.  Futurewise will also continue to work with counties and cities to help them learn from Oso to prevent further loss of lives and homes.  

There are two important lessons we hope are learned by the tragedy of Oso.  First, that a landslide like Oso is not a freak accident or surprise – it is common in this place we call home and it will only become more common with our changing climate.  Second, a tragedy like Oso does not just affect the people killed and injured in the landslide and who lose their homes, it also affects the community, the state, and the nation through the loss of life and the cost of responding to the disaster.  The solution to preventing these types of tragedies happening again is to not put people in harm’s way to begin with.  

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